SINGAPORE, 1 April 2020 --
Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research for Singapore, Colliers International:
Private residential property prices in Singapore fell in Q1 2020, after rising for three straight quarters, due to the coronavirus impact on the economy. Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Wednesday (1 Apr) showed that private residential property prices fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) in Q1 2020, giving back almost half of the 2.7% gain recorded in the full year 2019.A closer look at the transactions during the quarter suggests that the decrease in Q1 non-landed CCR prices could be due to selected launches sold at perceived discounts:
- The M, newly launched in February and the best-selling project in Q1 2020, sold 389 units in Q1 at a median price of S$2,438 psf, compared to nearby Midtown Bay which sold 38 units at a median price of S$2,934 psf in Q4 2019;
- The Enclave at Holland, a 26-unit project launched since July 2018, sold 14 units in Q1 at a median price of S$1,851 psf, compared to earlier units sold at S$2,500 - S$2,600 psf.
Rest of Central Region (RCR)
Outside Central Region (OCR)
We believe the decline in OCR prices was mainly due to the high base in Q4 2019, on the good reception of Sengkang Grand Residences, which sold 226 units at a median price of S$1,742psf. It sold just 11 units in Q1 2020, at a median price of S$1,734psf.
Meanwhile, some earlier launches such as Treasure at Tampines and Florence Residences continued their progressive takeup.
- Treasure at Tampines moved 195 units at S$1,363 psf in Q1, compared to 156 units at S$1,375 psf in Q4;
- Florence Residences sold 55 units at a median price of S$1,496 psf, compared to 56 units at S$1,499 psf in Q4 2019.
Transactions have tapered off sharply in March from a strong February, as the effects of the COVID-19 are starting to reverberate through the economy and hurt sentiment. Based on caveats downloaded on 1 April 2020, developers sold 528 new homes (excluding ECs) in March 2020, down sharply from the 947 units in February. Secondary transactions were also down, at 328 units in March, from 436 units in February.
Based on advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on 26 March, Singapore’s Q1 GDP contracted by -2.2% YOY and -10.6% QOQ (seasonally adjusted annualized). MTI forecast Singapore to head into its first recession in two decades, putting 2020 growth in the range of -4% to -1%. MAS has warned of job losses and slower wage growth as recession looms. Job security is one of the key drivers for home purchases.
With home prices highly correlated to household income and the economy, we expect private residential prices could decline 1-3% in 2020, in line with the economic contraction.
The projected decline in 2020 will be the first year of decline since 2016 (-3.1%). We do not think prices will fall as much as the 25% over Q2 2008 to Q2 2009 due to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as there were rampant speculation and loose credit prior to the GFC.
The nine rounds of property cooling measures in 2009-2018 have reined in speculation and price increases over the past three years were more sustainable, in our opinion. We also believe there is room for the government to ease or unwind earlier measures, which should lend some support to prices. That said, much depends on the length and extent of the COVID-19 pandemic.
We now expect developers’ sales may fall to 8,000 units for the full 2020, compared to the 9,912 units in 2019.
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