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Asia Pacific Property Markets: Themes for 2021

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Logistics & Industrial sector and technology occupiers leading the way

This report details prospects for the office and logistics/industrial sectors across the region in the light of likely recovery.

Colliers' experts also outline four of the key themes that Colliers expects to drive APAC property markets over 2021 – China Plus One strategy, technology occupiers, flexible workspace, and sustainability – and assess their implications for property occupiers and owners.

 

Key Forecasts & Outlook for Office Markets:
  • We expect aggregate leasing demand to rise 96% from last year’s weak level, but see new supply at 1.6x demand, which should depress rents by 6.1%

  • Rising vacancy should peak at about 15% at year-end 2023

  • High vacancy will be concentrated in China and India; vacancy will be lower in popular occupier locations like Sydney, Melbourne and Singapore

  • Most APAC office markets should favour tenants over the next year

  • Offices remain popular with investors; however, with demand and supply out of balance in many cities, office prices are unlikely to rise in the near term
Key Forecasts & Outlook for Logistics & Industrial:
  • The shift from physical to online retail has driven demand for logistics space, and COVID-19 has boosted e-commerce volumes

  • Expansion in cold chain, new warehouse designs and new infrastructure projects should fuel demand further

  • Most APAC markets now favour landlords

  • Rents should pick up in the big Chinese cities in 2021, with 3.0% growth in Shanghai

  • Higher incentives had made Sydney and Melbourne favour tenants, but with firm demand effective rents should rise 1.0-2.5% this year

  • Cap rates for Chinese logistics assets could fall below office cap rates within a few years

 

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Asia Pacific Property Markets: Themes for 2021

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Ian Little

National Director | Research

My Colliers priorities focus on supporting the New Zealand network through the provision of research and thought leadership reports, articles and presentations. I draw on over 30 years of experience in the property market, gained in both the UK and New Zealand to my role enabling me to assist a broad range of clients and internal stakeholders. I am a member of the Royal Institution of Chartered surveyors. I am a regular presenter on current market conditions and future trends to the media, clients and various interest groups.

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Richard Kirke

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Richard is responsible for the promotion of New Zealand property to international investors, leveraging of his relationships developed in executive positions during his near 8 years in Hong Kong, as well as assisting to grow the company’s nationwide Rural and Agribusiness agency capability.

Richard began his real estate career in 2004 with CBRE, in the five years he spent with them (before leaving to run Colliers Hong Kong business in 2008) he was involved in many notable transactions including the sale of the Lion Nathan site in Newmarket for $162m, the sale of the GE & BNZ Britomart properties on behalf of Manson’s to the German fund HIH and portfolio sales, including the successful auctioning of 16 National Bank Branches across New Zealand.

During his time as MD of Colliers Hong Kong he was involved in the sale of 50 Connaught Road on behalf Apollo Group (a New York based Hedge Fund) to the Agricultural Bank of China for $US632m.

Richard was the Managing Director of Colliers Hong Kong office for six years from 2009-2014. During this time he was an active participant in several high value transactions and developed broad relationships with both Asian investors and colleagues across the region.

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Greg Goldfinch

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Greg has been the lead broker on nearly all of the largest transactions in the industrial property market over the last ten years. Greg has completed three of the largest industrial sales ever in the New Zealand market. He is a regular top 10 broker for Colliers across NZ having transacted in excess of $6billion worth of industrial real estate in his time with Colliers.

In 2013, 2019 and 2020 Greg was awarded the Commercial and Industrial Salesperson of the Year Award by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand and was runner up in 2018. Greg was Colliers International’s top salesperson in New Zealand across all sectors in In 2010, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

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Andrew Haskins

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Andrew joined Colliers as Executive Director, Research, Asia in February 2016. He is responsible for directing research output by over 40 staff across the regional offices, and is committed to delivering strategic, rigorous and actionable research to help Colliers' clients and business professionals make key commercial decisions..

Andrew has 30 years of experience – including 18 years in Asia – in property, equity and strategic research. He has worked with large investment banks including HSBC and Nomura around the world, and has covered numerous industrial and service sectors including real estate. He is skilled in rigorous, strategic analysis of regional and global trends and has deep expertise in accounting, financial forecasting and corporate valuation. Andrew has built and led successful teams in Asia, the Middle East and Europe, and has extensive experience of serving senior institutional clients around the world. He speaks English, Japanese and French.

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